Santana

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:46 am

Mets May Have Top Santana Offer

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggests the Mets might be the best fit for Johan Santana. He says they're offering four players, three of them pitchers: Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. It's a strong package.

Christensen says the Twins would accept if the Mets added Fernando Martinez to the package (not sure if Martinez would replace Gomez, or it would just be five players instead of four).

Something's got to give here in the next few weeks - how long can the Santana saga hold up the free agent pitching market?











I'm really torn. Part of me realizes that adding santana could give the Mets the best rotation in the NL, and one of the best in baseball. They would definitely redeem themselves for last season.

On the other hand, F-Mart is is an elite prospect. He's up there with Hughes and Ellsbury (so says Keith Law). Adding Gomez, Mulvey, Guerra, and Humber is a ton. That destroys the Skanks and Sox offers.

I say you hold firm. Gomez, Mulvey, Guerra, and Pelfrey. The Sox and Skanks haven't stepped up their offers, so there's no reason for us to. Plus, I really don't think Minnesota wants to deal him to a league rival. They want him in the NL.

Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 09, 2008 at 11:01 PM

Please do it. I'm tired of hearing Santana's name this winter and I'd love to have him out of the AL Central (Tigers fan here).

Posted by: Mace27 | January 09, 2008 at 11:02 PM

I don't get how that is a stronger package than the Ellsbury offer, the Lester offer or the Hughes offer.

It just isn't.

Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | January 09, 2008 at 11:09 PM

While F-Mart might not be as great of a spect as Ellsbury or Hughes, I think the other guys (Guerra, Gomez, Humber, Mulvey) are better than what the Sox and Skanks are adding to their studs.

Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 09, 2008 at 11:11 PM

Man, I can't see Omar giving up all five of those guys. I know Omar's instincts are to feel the same way, but he knows he has to win now, so I wouldn't be completely surprised if he caved.

But I'd guess F-Mart has to replace one of Gomez, Guerra, or Mulvey. If that's the case, no matter how much I hate to see Martinez go, I think the deal gets done pretty quick. I fully believe Omar's job is on the line. He needs a strong 2008 showing. And adding Santana could overshadow "the Collapse" come April.

Posted by: MEddler | January 09, 2008 at 11:11 PM

The Twins would trade him within the division if they got the players they wanted in return. That said, I can't help but feel as though the Twins are using the Mets as a means to get the Yankees to up their offer. Being across town from the Mets, the Yankees would take a hit if the Mets snagged him. With both the Yankees and Red Sox holding firm on their offers, the Twins needed another team in the mix to unblock the other two. Pretty crafty on their part.

Posted by: Devlsh | January 09, 2008 at 11:13 PM

i hope the twins take this deal over the sox deal now, we get to save the prospects, the money, santana doesnt wear pinstripes, and he leaves the american league, thats an all around win. besides, im sure thats what the twins hoped for, to trade him to a team that they would never have to face him again

Posted by: 04Forever | January 09, 2008 at 11:14 PM

What's interesting is that the Twins are actually pretty deep in young OF prospects, specifically CF. They have all of these for either ML or very possibly regular OF prospects right now: Cuddyer/Young/Kubel/Pridie/Martin/Revere/Benson/Parmalee. I didn't include Span because I figure him to be a 4th OF at best.

I do think, however, that the Mets and the Sox are the clear leaders in this. Their packages are simply better than the Yanks. Hughes is great, but Melky is basically a 4th OF, nothing more.

It could be that Martinez goes in instead of Humber. The Twins don't really need TWO pitchers back for Johan. Remember, they still have Nathan to deal. They can easily fill a rotation with ONE guy back for Johan. Cisco/pitcher from Johan deal/Baker/Slowey/Perkins/Boof/Blackburn

Lastly, any more talk of a Nathan/Cubs deal? Vitters might be a real good fit there. It doesn't seem he'll ever get a shot with the Cubs with Aramis and his contract. And the corner OF positions are full with Soriano/Fukodome. And the Twins still need a future 3b. Vitters could be ready at some point in 2009.

So ya, the Mets deal and a Cubs/Nathan deal for Vitters/something else would REALLY stack the Twins by 2009 for a World Series run.

Posted by: djskilbr | January 09, 2008 at 11:20 PM

ouch, i dont think calling melky a 4th outfielder is correct, im a sox fan and i can admit that

Posted by: 04Forever | January 09, 2008 at 11:26 PM

Maybe not a 4th outfielder, but not a main chip in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball. Skank fans love blowing their load on him, but the fact is he can't hit for his life. Defense will only get you so far...

Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 09, 2008 at 11:28 PM

jerseymetfan, the best pitching in baseball would come up from the NL west period, maybe if Martinez and Hernandez would 5 yrs younger and Perez could put the ball in the plate more often I would agree, but c´monn don´t make me laugh

Posted by: alexpadres | January 09, 2008 at 11:38 PM

And in the last post I ever expected to see a Cubs related comment in, one appears.

Posted by: Grizzlyfox | January 09, 2008 at 11:40 PM

Johan
Pedro
Maine
Ollie

Who can top that?

Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 09, 2008 at 11:45 PM

Do Mets fans have confidence that Pedro can return to at least a #2-#3 starter? Perez and Maine both have their warts. Thats not a lock for the best rotation in the NL.

Posted by: J.L. | January 09, 2008 at 11:51 PM

Tim your kidding me about Mets "Best Offer" right?

Uhm.. quantity does not equal quality people. Not even close to Sox and Yanks packages

Posted by: fleas | January 09, 2008 at 11:52 PM

It gives you the best starter in the NL (especially at Shea), but not the best rotation. Throwing in Gomez AND Martinez is too much. One or the other and make the deal.

Posted by: J.L. | January 09, 2008 at 11:53 PM

The Cubs are going to be holding on to Vitters...he played 3rd in high school...that doesn't mean he is strictly a 3rd basemen...

And yes, how did the Cubs come up in this one? They don't need Nathan, they have 3 guys battling for the closers job already, and all three would do really well.

If I'm the twins, I still take a package that involves an elite SP like Hughes first and foremost.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | January 09, 2008 at 11:54 PM

Pedro was incredible when he came back. Granted it was only 28 innings (5 starts), but it was very promising:

28 IP
1.43 WHIP
10.29 K/9
2.57 ERA

The WHIP doesn't look so hot, but I'm confident that Pedro will be just fine.

Yeah, Maine and Ollie have their rough patches, but each showed flashes of brilliance last year.

I never said it was a lock, but adding Johan certainly adds the Mets to any discussion about top rotations.

Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 10, 2008 at 12:00 AM

i still like hughes the most in terms of overall talent of the players involved, but i get the notion that the yankees don't want to make this deal or else it would've already been done. i mean, how do you not accept johan for phil hughes/melky/marquez/4th prospect? you just don't turn that down if you really want him.

my gut is the yankees intelligent leaders (cashman/hal stein) don't want his salary and contract length, and the red sox aren't offering enough in terms of an overall package. he might be right, the mets might have the best offer.

Posted by: minnesotawins | January 10, 2008 at 12:11 AM

I think this is comparable to the Sox/Yanks packages and makes it even more difficult to make a decision. Substituting Martinez for one of the pitchers would definitely put the Mets over the top. Gomez is in this deal to compete with Pridie for the 2008 job, so he wouldn't be replaced.

Posted by: twinstapir | January 10, 2008 at 12:11 AM

i would take the padres top three over your projected staff of the mets . the padres' offense couldn't touch the mets , but of all the pitching staffs in the NL , i would prefer the padres , and diamondbacks with santana or not pitching for the mets .

Posted by: wj | January 10, 2008 at 12:14 AM

1st, on Vitters, even if he doesn't play 3b, then where does he fit for the Cubs in the next few years? 1b-Lee, 3b-Aramis, LF-Soriano, RF-Fukodome. He doesn't have a spot. He just doesn't. He's make more sense for them to deal than Pie/Marmol if they really are interested in Nathan.

As for Melky, sorry, I know this will anger the Yankees' fans, but he is a 4th OF in my mind. As you mention, he can't hit really. Yes, he's 22, but nothing in his minor or major league track record suggests he can hit at all. And his defense is vastly overrated. Yankees fans just went nuts for him because he replaced Damon's terrible defense in CF. He was still a below average CF defensively. In fact, according to the Fielding Bible, if you believe such things (and I do) he was the 2nd WORST defensive CF in baseball last year! And the Twins' CF requires range because the range of both Cuddyer and Delmon Young is weak. So we need someone to make up for that.

Sorry, but as a Twins fan, I'd rather have Jason Pridie starting in CF this year than Melky Cabrera. I really would.

Posted by: djskilbr | January 10, 2008 at 12:23 AM

I really don't see how this or the Yankees package is better than the RS package

Using a BP system, Ellsbury 5 star, Masterson, Lowrie 4 star, Crisp GC defense..

What is in the Mets package that is clearly ahead of what the Twins already have in their system, or could buy for a few million?

Posted by: quintjs | January 10, 2008 at 12:36 AM

following up, Yankees have a 5star pitcher, Melky, and then are offering a guy who couldn't make it as a 2star prospect, and a 'other' player, as in someone not good enough to replace Jeff Marquez? as a named inclusion.

Hughes would have to be a 10star prospect to make that offer even to the RS.

Posted by: quintjs | January 10, 2008 at 12:40 AM

i dont know if the mets have a better package....but it clear they dont want johan in the AL if they wanted to send him to yanks or sox they would have done it allready


dont give me this bull about waiting and making the other team give more up. how long we have been hearing these names out there . nothing has changed that means they dont wanna see him bite the in the ASS when the wanna be contenders in a yr or 2 ....

Posted by: Dee Edge | January 10, 2008 at 01:12 AM

Many of you need to play a couple hands of poker. Bill Smith is not at all concerned with how annoyed you are about hearing about Santana in the media (Oh, what a pity! Poor baseball fans). Either one of these teams give (including the Angels I think) or the Twins wait until the deadline and the long term "contract" is no longer a prohibitive feature (and don't spell the bull that Johan would rather sit on a losing squad then go to a winner at the deadline).

I think the Mets would be foolish not to give up an 18 year old to cinch the deal. For as much as it's been ballyhooed the Redsox deal isn't very good. Ellsbury and Lowrie (or Lester) are far from sure bets, and even if they reach their potential it isn't as high as Hughes or Fmart or Gomez or maybe even Guerra.

The fact that the Mets have "emerged" tells that Bill Smith is doing something right. I honestly think the Twins will get the best deal in July--the contract extension is being used as a limiting factor (which is ridiculous) at this point, in July, it won't be an issue, Sanatana would be one of the best two-month rentals ever on the market.

Posted by: Pseudofool | January 10, 2008 at 01:42 AM

Pedro gets nothing anymore in terms of benefit of the doubt. That's like pencilling Rich Harden into your rotation.

I don't think you can expect to get more for Santana as a two month rental. I don't see many two month rentals traded for 4 players. Plus, isn't Santana threatening to use his no-trade option for some of these teams, or is that incorrect?

Posted by: DentalPlan | January 10, 2008 at 02:07 AM

As a White sox fan I would like to say that chicago will be throwing a mardi gras party the second he gets traded out of our division. It would be even better if he was traded to the NL. The yankees will never get him with there cheep, lowball offer. They have billions and are being stubborn about there prospects, well enjoy second place yankee fans.

Posted by: PIERZYNSKI 4 PREZ | January 10, 2008 at 02:19 AM

Pedro gets nothing anymore in terms of benefit of the doubt. That's like pencilling Rich Harden into your rotation.

I don't think you can expect to get more for Santana as a two month rental. I don't see many two month rentals traded for 4 players. Plus, isn't Santana threatening to use his no-trade option for some of these teams, or is that incorrect?

Posted by: DentalPlan | January 10, 2008 at 02:07 AM

A bit harsh no? It was the first significant injury he's had in a good 5 years before then and he proved he was healthy in September last year and has since had another 3 months of rest and rehab. I see no reason why he can't give the Mets a very good line. I'm thinking 13-15 wins, 180 IP, 180 K, 3.50 ERA

Posted by: AdropOFvenom | January 10, 2008 at 02:43 AM

RedMagma

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:48 am

Jan 9, 2008 11:29 pm - Buzz: F-Mart Keeping Johan Deal on Hold



http://www.metsblog.com/
...posted by Evan Drellich...

According to Joe Christensen of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Mets have been told that they can land Johan Santana if they add OF Fernando Martinez to their current offer of OF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

Christensen writes that while the Yankees and Red Sox both remain in the sweepstakes, “Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.”

Christensen speculates that Santana is looking for a five- or six-year contract worth at least $20 million per season.

…this is in line with what matt has written all along…literally, the twins want the mets to give up the farm…

…personally, i might do it…the mets, regrettably, did not go all out for Pedro Martinez after the 1997 season when the Expos put him on the block, and ten years later, it feels like that scenario could be replaying itself...
Posted in Evan Drellich, Fernando Martinez, Johan Santana, Mets Rumors on January 9th, 2008
84 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 4:52 pm - News: LaRocque Leaves Mets for Cards

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

The Cardinals have hired Gary LaRocque as senior special assistant to the General Manager.

…by the way, that’s assistant to the general manager, dwight…

LaRocque spent the last 10 years in senior management levels for the New York Mets, where he was responsible for signing David Wright and Scott Kazmir.
Posted in Mets on January 9th, 2008
25 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 4:48 pm - Buzz: Braves Interested in Kotsay

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves have contacted the A’s regarding OF Mark Kotsay.

In just 56 games for Oakland last season, the 32–year-old Kotsay hit .214 with 15 extra base hits.

Kotsay missed the final 106 games last season due to back pain.

He will earn $8 million next season, after which he is eligible to be a free agent.

…thanks to Peter Wade, our resident eyes and ears, for the link…
Posted in Braves on January 9th, 2008
6 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 3:39 pm - Read: Gomez vs. Ellsbury vs. Melky

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

Mets OF Carlos Gomez has a bigger ceiling than Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury or Yankees OF Melky Cabrera, explains Dugout Central.

…thanks to Tommy Mac for the link…

Dugout Central, created by former Yankee Mike Pagliarulo, is a place “where fans and scouts come together to discuss our national pastime.”

According to the report…

“With improved technique at the plate he could be a 30–plus home run guy.”

According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, during an on-air spot during the Winter Meetings, Gomez may be more attractive to the Twins than Ellsbury.

…as i said in late november, i am very impressed with the perceived value of gomez…teams seem to really like him - much more than they liked Lastings Milledge…one independent scout told me after the season that people view gomez as capable of becoming Jimmy Rollins in the outfield one day…
Posted in Carlos Gomez on January 9th, 2008
69 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 1:37 pm - Blog: Bottle Caps

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

In a post to MetsMerized Online, Dave Ponte lists 10 people in the Mets organization who have the most to prove in 2008, including Nancy Salsiccia, the assistant manager of Aramark food services, of whom he writes…

“Treat the fans at Shea with respect by keeping the sausage and peppers warm. Always have rolls. Eating greasy peppers out of a cardboard tray just doesn’t do the trick. Oh yeah, keep the beers cold by making sure the ice is on point. Also, slip the extra beer caps under a napkin so that I can flick them at annoying Phillies fans when they start to act up.”

…also, why do they take the cap to my bottle of water…

…it drives me crazy…

…honestly, i just end up importing caps from older bottled water that i had been drinking in the car…this way, when they hand me the newly purchased bottle and take its cap, i simply twist on my own imported cap…is it so much to ask that my bottled water have a hat on so if it gets kicked over, or knocked on its side, it doesn’t spill…

…you know, it really is the little things in life that will end up giving me a heart attack…i can see it coming…
Posted in Shea Stadium on January 9th, 2008
31 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 12:38 pm - News: Mazzilli Back with SNY

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

Lee Mazzilli will return to SNY for the 2008 season.

…i’ll be honest, it was a rough start for mazz, who looked very uncomfortable during those first few broadcasts…however, as the season moved on, he adjusted very well…by the end of the season, i started looking forward to his specific opinions, because he brought a brutal, but necessary honesty to a very, very disappointing end to the season…

By the way, SNY will broadcast 16 spring-training games beginning on February 29 against the Cardinals.

To see the full schedule, click here.
Posted in Lee Mazzilli, SNY on January 9th, 2008
5 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 11:42 am - Buzz: Brian Roberts to Cubs Back On

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

According to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, talks between the Cubs and O’s about 2B Brian Roberts are back on.

“This deal is almost certainly going to happen,” writes Rogers, “The only question is when and how much it is going to cost the Cubs.”

…thanks to jason b for the link…

…i can’t believe i ever thought that the Mets could acquire both roberts and Erik Bedard in the same deal…talk about being delusional…the hot stove must have been so hot i became dehydrated and delirious…
Posted in Brian Roberts on January 9th, 2008
24 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 9:58 am - Blog: MetsGeek’s Real Met Killers

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

In a post to MetsGeek, Alex Nelson breaks out his calculator to determine the top 12 ‘Real’ Met-Killers of all time, i.e., guys who hit significantly better against the Mets compared to when playing against other teams.

According to Nelson, the ‘real’ No. 1 Met Killer of all time is not Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter or Pat Burrell, but OF Rico Carty, who had a 1.064 OPS in 360 at-bats against the Mets - compared to .833 OPS against other teams.

…hmm, tell that to Armando Benitez, and the dent i put in my kitchen wall thanks to Brian Jordan…

…also, i have never hated a player more than i hated John Rocker…and, frankly, i suspect Kenny Rogers is among the most hated Mets, thanks to his performance while actually pitching for the Mets - a true accomplishment if ever there was one…
Posted in Mets on January 9th, 2008
63 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 9:42 am - Buzz: Only Five Years for Johan

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

Yankees VP Hank Steinbrenner recently told Newsday that his team will not give Johan Santana more than a five-year contract if they acquire him from the Twins.

…well, the way i understand it, santana is not approving a trade unless he gets a substantial extension worked out in advance…the thing is, the sense i get is that, like the Yankees, the Mets are reluctant to give santana a seven-year deal as well…for what it’s worth, it is very difficult to get a pitcher’s contract insured if it is more than a five-year deal…

…my question, though, is will santana accept a five-year extension, to start after the end of next season, along with a substantial raise for this coming season as well, so that he’d be essentially getting a six-year guarantee starting right now…

According to the Boston Herald, Santana’s agent has said he is seeking seven years and at least $140 million.
Posted in Johan Santana, Mets Rumors on January 9th, 2008
30 Comments »
Jan 9, 2008 9:06 am - Note: Hagin Targeted for WFAN

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

According to Mike Puma in the New York Post, the Mets and WFAN are ‘targeting’ veteran broadcaster Wayne Hagin to replace Tom McCarthy.

Hagin has called games for the A’s, Giants, White Sox, Rockies and Cardinals.

…from what i can gather, neither WFAN nor the Mets had much direction on this once Andy Freed declined their offer to remain in Tampa Bay…initially i believe they were open to every one, from triple-a broadcaster to veteran MLB voices, though i am not sure where they stand today…

…personally, i’d rather they hire an unknown triple-a voice, or some one who at least knows the Mets organization…

…thanks to Peter Wade for the link…
Posted in Mets on January 9th, 2008
15 Comments »
Jan 8, 2008 7:52 pm - Quote: Willie on Reyes

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

Last night on SNY’s Mets Hot Stove, Willie Randolph had the following to say about Jose Reyes, who hit .205 in September…

“I think he learned a good lesson from this. He’s a young player who continues to need to mature and get better. I’m going to down in the Dominican Republic and hang out with him a but, and talk to him and hang out, and get a sense of where he’s head is and where he’s coming from. But, I have no doubt he’ll bounce back…He lost a lot of confidence, and he’s used to having his way a lot, and playing the game very easily, and he just didn’t understand how to get back on track and the more he pressed the more it made it worse for him…

“It was bad timing at the wrong time, and we didn’t need our best player to go through a funk at that particular time. But, he was phenomenal all year long, and he just went through a tough time in his career where he had to learn how to get out of his own way, and it just hurt us at the wrong time…He just didn’t know how to build up and get out of that.”

…when talking about his late-season struggles with people who are close to him and watched him in the dugout and locker room, and before and after games, far more people cited mechanical issues, such as him dropping his back shoulder when he swings, as well as how he missed Rick Down as hitting coach, who was fired mid-way through the season…also, as has been suggested by a variety of reporters, including SNY’s Ron Darling while talking to MetsBlog a few months ago, reyes’s body may have taken too much of a beating from over 100 head-first slides, causing all sorts of problems for him in the second half…

…as i have written before, the conclusion i keep reaching is that jose is young, emotional, a bit head-strong, and while he’s a good kid, who wants to be the best player he can be, he needs to keep working, and working hard, learn from his mistakes and, in the end, he just needs to grow up, which is totally fair when talking about a 24–year-old young man…from what i can gather, he sulks a bit when he does bad, and he may let the game get the best of him at times, which is totally expected from a young player, especially one who had relatively quick stardom like jose…

…the best young players, the ones who go on to great careers, are the ones who rise above this, mature and learn to deal with adversity, fight through it, and keep getting better because of it…it sounds to me like jose had never experienced this before…hopefully, thanks to last season, now he has…
Posted in Jose Reyes, Willie Randolph on January 8th, 2008
53 Comments »
Jan 8, 2008 3:41 pm - eMailbag: Pagan’s Options

...posted by Matthew Cerrone...

Jason B sent in the following question…

“Do you know if Angel Pagan has any options left - or was his acquisition to keep Endy Chavez hungry and working hard to win his reserve outfield spot?”

…yes, pagan has options left, and so he can essentially be promoted and sent down from the minor leagues at any time…

…by the way, i seriously doubt that endy needs additional motivation…

…the pagan acquisition led to a variety of interesting theories…i heard people wonder if it means endy could get traded…or, that it must suggest a deal for santana will clobber the team’s outfield depth, i.e., Carlos Gomez or maybe even Ryan Church…who knows…it’s an interesting thought, considering the following:

During a recent chat with the Boston Globe, ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons said that the Mets are currently trying to build up inventory to trade for Johan Santana, adding that Twins GM Bill Smith may be ‘waiting to see if any offer gets better.’

Posted in Angel Pagan, Endy Chavez on January 8th, 2008
13 Comments »
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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:51 am

So we could trade for Santana and still keep Pelfrey (despite the criticism he gets, he has very good stuff)? Get it done and I’ll book the flights myself.



i’m embarrassed that we still talking about this.

with this guy, this team can win it all. NOW.

are the prospects we keep putting us in a world series game next year?

trade them all! we are 1 of the 4 teams that can pay for them if they turn out to be all-stars and hall of famers, right? why not let them develop somewhere else??? ESPECIALLY the AL, where they can’t really hurt us.

the end. trade them all. get him and win the belt, brother.

BRING ME THE HEAD OF JOHAN SANTANA!!


This team is built to win NOW! So we can not possibly miss out on another opportunity to acquire a key player. As sad as I am to lose the kids, I can’t help it but to think this is possibly our last chance to get anything close of a remarkable pitcher that is Johan Santana. Pedro, Santana, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey, Are you not salivating like I am? (I’m heterosexual by the way) I’m sorry, but lets get Johan and get this ring already.




If nothing else, they should lead the league in Ks!

That is a nice looking rotation. Just plug Duque in the 5 hole to start, send Pelfrey to AAA to master all his pitches, and hope for health.

Pelfrey would come up for the first injury.

There better not, however, be a second injury, since that would lead to Lima/Lawrence time, since every other ML plausible SP was just traded away.
(Comments wont nest below this level)

Please spare me your Yankee heresy by questioning my team loyalty, obviously you must be too stupid to realize that our system has yet to produce a top notch starter (other than Kazmir) or an all-star position player (Lastings Miledge). We have jeopardize numerous times to acquire a started for example Zito in 2006 and we all know how that ended. Obviously I’m no GM, but I’m certainly entitled to my opinion so therefore no need for name calling or assumptions. Your the idiot that wants to keep an unproven farm and I want to see the best pitcher in baseball pitching for the Mets in 2008.



bluNoway2go : Mortgage the future for now? We have plenty of young players like Wright & Reyes who deserve a future. You sound like the perfect candidate to be a Yankee fan. Look how that has worked out these past number of years for them. One player or even pitcher is not enough to put the Mets over the top but half their farm could.

Pass on Santana. PLEASE!
(Comments wont nest below this level)



Prospects are prospects. No matter what you think they can achieve, their futures aren’t certain. Why not trade them for a known commodity? Plus it’s not like we’re mortgaging the future for a bum. This is the best pitcher in baseball. This is a guy who is probably going to the Hall of Fame, and for the next team he plays for. Are you really going to pass up on a chance to get a Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher when he’s only 29 because you THINK Fernando Martinez, Gomes, et al COULD be very good players?




A farm system has not yet won a World Series.

Its a stiff price, but I’d do it and not look back. The Mets would immediately go from a below average rotation to one of the best (if not THE best) in the league.

The picks we have this year should go a long way toward restocking the system.

I would include Martinez, and see if in return we can pull back Guerra or Mulvey - see if the Twins blink.




Too much. It’s not like they are bursting with position prospects. And it is possible that Guerra could be the best of the 5.

Tell them thanks, but no thanks.

Given the factors involved (the huge contract, he will walk anyway, etc.) Gomez, Mulvey and Humber is already a pretty solid package. 2 more players is fine, but as with the Sox and Yankee offers, they should be younger or lower tier.

I know Martinez and Guerra are young, but they are also the top rated prospects in the system.

So we have Mulvey who may not be an ace, but is close to ML ready and has good buzz, and Gomez, who is supposedly better than Ellisbury (sp?) from the sox. And Humber who could hit the majors for good this year (still a 1st round pick with potential).

Throwing the 2 other top prospects on top of that seems insane. The yankees offer 1 top prospect, a mediocre ML OF, and some spare parts, and we offer up this?

Actually, the Gomez/Guerra/Mulvey and Humber deal, while not crippling the Mets in 2008 (who knows the impact in 2009) could still end up being a heist for the Twins!

Take Guerra out and substiute almost anyone else, and then you have to do it (Omar that is)

it would be nice to have Santana, but long term, is the cost worth it?

PLus, if it goes down, who do you have to trade to fill any holes that pop up?

But at least they would keep Pelfrey…

RedMagma

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:55 am

yeah, it is too much, its waaaaay more than either the Yanks or the Sox are being asked to give up, just because our prospects aren’t rated as highly, which is BS by the way, they’re just behind in their development, but most of our prospects actually have higher ceilings than the other teams. Either way, I don’t believe this report, it might be true, it might also be total BS, and either way, its too much. Keep F-mart, add someone else, and thats still a hell of a package

Maybe it is a dance. Omar counters with Gomez + Martinez, but take out Guerra and Mulvey and replace them with Neise and someone else.

That Guerra kid could be real nasty, and soon, in the majors.

At least the Gomez, Mulvey, Humber core seems to be accurate (and I am fine with all of them going if need be).

THat 4th (and 5th?) guy are just going to be the sticking points


its times like this when im glad its not actually my decision to make. i cant make a decision. I see from both sides of the coin. Johan on the mets would make a very very solid rotation….but that is a hell of a lot to give up, on top of however much we wind up paying in $$. I would agree with whats already been said tho, if you can insert Martinez and somehow pull back Guerra, then i would have to do it. again, glad its not my decision. i feel for omar

This assures a WS date for our last season at Shea. We lost out on Vlad ,A-rod and like you said 10 yrs ago on Pedro. Lets not add Johan to that list. For all we know these kids can be the new version of generation k and Jay Payton. Plus to soften the blow we have 3 early round picks. We can also ask Minny to add a kid on their end like Oakland did with Haren. So in reality we only lose 1 player. OMAR ,pull the trigger and lets get this done already, i’m tired of reading the same recycled story every week.



just read the article. Actually pretty reasonably thought out and fair. He did call out the Yankee offer as weak (a top P prospect, bu not much else).

Probably the sox get him if they decide to put Lowire, Lester and Ellisbury together in the same package.

still, the mets can’t give up Guerra and Martinez, plus 3 more good players (all ML ready or real close) for 1 year rental on a SP that needs a big contract.

And contrary to popular opinion, the Mets aren’t built to “win now”, implying that it is this year or never. If so, it makes even less sense to dump the farm and sign a SP to a huge LT deal!


I disagree with your “aren’t built to win now” statement. IF that were true, Omar and Willie wouldn’t be hiding behind the “we couldn’t wait for Milledge’s development” excuse in making the deal with the Nats. Trading a 22 Year old OF who was your gem at one point and supposed to start for a 29 year old RF and a catcher who can’t hit ISNT a move for “let’s wait and see”
If Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are our young offensive core, then Johan, Maine, and Oliver Perez should by logic, be our PITCHING core. I agree that Guerra should for all intents and purposes should be nasty…but so should’ve Humber, and he got hurt and who knows what shall happen then?
We still get to keep our most ready young pitcher in Pelfrey. Trade Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra. Give them Gomez as well. He has shown potential, but the jury is still out. Omar should get on the phone tomorrow, and not get off until he is able to work a trade with the Twins that doesn’t include Fernando Martinez.
However, in the end, and i mean the “ok omar, we have boston on the other line, say hello Theo” “Hello Omar, it’s Theo” “do we have a deal or what, Omar” type of end, if F-Mart must go, so be it.

To make this trade, we have to sign Perez and Maine to extensions. Do that, get Santana, and you have core for years to come … but lose those guys, and in two years we have a one man pitching staff with nothing close in the system coming up



Add Pelfrey to that mix, and you would have a potentially dominant rotation for 3-4 years. Assuming he hits his potential.

Hey, instead of 3-4 back end guys, try having 4 #1/#2 guys at the same time!

Even nicer to add Guerra in another 2 years or so.

No matter what happens with Santana, they need to try and extend Ollie ASAP.




Phuck Pelfey. He’s a one-pitch pitcher. He needs to go to the bullpen where he can be best utilized why he figures out how to throw a good breaking ball, forkball, change-up . . . . SOMETHING!!!!

Frankly, I’d rather give them Pelfrey than F-Mart. I guess the Twins aren’t interested in Pelfrey.
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It is also possible that the story (the offer and the counter) is 100% true. And that Omar really is at his limit, he won’t budge (nor should he), and they just walk away.

Call the Twins bluff. The 4 guys on the table are already probably the best offer.

And look at it this way. Pitching is expensive, but what else could you get for that package? Snell + how much else? Or can you get someone like Snell for less?






It’s too much. The “prospects are prospects” argument proves too much; with that logic, you’d be willing to trade 40 prospects for Santana. You have to draw a line at how much you’re going to give up, even if they are prospects.

I don’t know if anyone’s done a study of 5-for-1 deals (like the Von Hayes deal). I would guess that 5-for-1 deals, where the “1″ is a pitcher, have not been great successes. And contracts for pitchers for more than 5 years have not been successes.

Look at what the the A’s got back for Haren. Granted, Haren is not as good as Santana, but what the A’s got for him is weak compared to the 5 being proposed for Santana. If we’re going to give up those 5, then we need to get back something valuable in addition to Santana.


El Duque is valuable? When is he ever healthy? The guy got hurt jogging in the outfield on the eve of the playoffs for God’s sake! You cant count on El Duque for this teams success. He is too huge of a risk. Also he does become expendable if we get Santana and keep Pelfrey. Even more so if we also sign a Colon or Garcia. I didnt say El Duque would bring us Pelfrey/Gomez types but some team would overpay if desperate at the deadline.



Tough decision Omar has on his desk.

I will gladly ship Mulvey, Humber,and Gomez in that deal.

The fact that they even are taking Humber is comical. Hes horrible.
Unlike with L Millz, the Mets would be selling high on Gomez. Which is another positive.
Mulvey at best is a 4 starter so no loss of sleep there.

It comes down to Guerrera and Fmart.

If I were Omar I probably would not do the deal if I have to include Fmart along with Guerrera.

I would rather give them Guerrera because we would have Johan, Olly, Maine, and Pelfrey for the next 5+yrs. Thats an exceptional NL rotation.

If Fmart turns out to be legit then we would have Reyes, Wright, FMart, and Beltran as our core hitters.

Thats a very nice balance if you ask me.

I rather take the chance on Fmart than Guerrera.

Now,If Minn wants both then I dont think Omar can make that deal. Im all for Johan but not at the expense of both Guerrera and Fmart.
IMO, the only 3 guys that have a shot of being quality ball players are Fmart,Guerrera, and Pelfrey….the other 3 I will drive to any airport to complete a solid deal.

The fact that we possibly can keep Pelfrey and Fmart and still land Johan is making me excited.

And another thing…..Stop saying we can trade El Duque for prospects. El Duque is a solid piece to this team. He will be valuable come post season in the rotation or in the pen. You dont trade a guy like that. Plus you will not get any prospects back on the fmart, Guerrera, Pelfrey level.

I like the fact that we have 3 1st round picks this yr. That will help out the system

In conclusion:
If we can land Johan for Gomez, Humber,Mulvey, and Guerrera its a NO BRAINER

If they want Fmart added to that deal I would tell Minn to go get themselves Melky Cabrera!

I knew all along the Mets will have a solid shot at Johan because they are the most willing to give up descent prospects.

If we land Johan and keep Pelfrey and Fmart, then Omar wins GM of the yr before the season even begins




Here is the way I see it…….
I will bring up a few points/opinions, and you guys can tell me if you agree…

1) our scouting clearly sucks ass…let’s face it, there’s a better chance of Britney Spears winning mother-of-the-year award than us drafting an ace anytime soon…if we can’t draft the ace we need, which we obviously can’t do, let’s trade for it.

2) hitting outfielders are a dime a dozen…bonified aces are hard to come by, and more important.

3) we are one of the few teams that can afford to buy back lost talent…so give it up now and pay for it back later.

4) these players are not proven yet and could turn out to be duds for all we know…so essentially you’d be passing up on a proven ace a.k.a. best pitcher in the game, on a chance that these players will turn out. I say go for the sure thing.

5) The Yankees have won their rings by buying and trading. yes they have had their share of good home-grown talent…but Georgey was known for pulling the trigger on the big names.

6) mets fans and even the new york media are obviously in a “win now” mind-set…especially with the new park coming. Santana could automatically turn us from an 85 win team to a 95 win team. how many wins will F-Mart/Mulvey/Guerra/Gomez/Humber give us in the next 2 or 3 years?

7) I don’t think anyone will be happy until Omar makes the big move…you say get us pitching get us pitching, but then you want him to pass on Johan Santana? That’s like being starving and turning down a steak. An expensive steak, but if it was the only thing to eat I would buy it. A steak that could very well go bad won’t do me any good in three years if i have already died of hunger….man i went real far with that one, but you get where i’m goin with it.

Cool we haven’t had an ace in a reeeal long time, it’d be nice to have one for a change.

9) We have passed on too many players only to regret it later…i don’t want to see it happen again.

that’s all i can think of now…needless to say i say go for it…it’s just too good. We have a chance to lock up the game’s best for 5 or 6 years. Instant Gratification, it’s in our american nature.




The trade is for the best pitcher in baseball right now, and likely for the next 3 years, and hopefully more. But certainly not for the next 7.

And say Guerra won’t be ready next by 09. That’s totally fine.

He still has value, even now, but likely MORE value next year.. As a chip for a trade should we need to fill another need.

Like First Base. Which is flashing a big red warning light.

Or Closer. Which is always going to be a concern until Wagner moves on.

Or more rotation help, because Free Agent pitching is never good pitching.
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There is no way Guerra will be ready by 2009. He is only 18 and just started pitching in A-ball. He is a couple of years out. The worst thing you can do to a phenom is rush the development of their arm. I know it hurts to trade them in all at once, but it aligns when you keep it in perspective. This is for the best pitcher in baseball.

Hey, if you lock up a Johan caliber pitcher this off-season. Imagine what we could shift our focus to next off-season. It has been a long time since we were able to say “Let’s just focus on some bats.” This is of course contingent on them re-signing OP.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:00 am

Hank’s Man Crush on Santana Continues


http://thebronxzoo.wordpress.com/2008/01/09/hanks-man-crush-on-santana-continues/
Kat O’Brien is reporting that Hank Steinbrenner still wants Johan Santana, stating that a trade with Minnesota is “definitely still a posibility.” Although there is nothing “new” to report (said by Steinbrenner himself), she did manage to pry a few more details out of him that make things extra interesting.

“The bottom line is, it’s my decision,” Hank Steinbrenner said, “but there’s disagreement within the organization. I’ve got to keep everybody happy in the organization, including Brian … That includes my partner, which is my brother.”

Clearly, Hank loves having the power. He explicitly states that “it’s my decision,” but then goes on to say that he also must keep Cashman happy (who doesn’t want to trade young players) and Hal happy (who doesn’t want to pay for the ace pitcher). He acts like, in the end, it’s totally his move to make, yet that does not seem accurate.

Steinbrenner goes on to say the following:

“The payroll would just be out of this world this year,” Steinbrenner said of potentially adding Santana, “but only for this year. When you’ve got to trade top young talent and pay a lot of money, it gets very risky.”

If the Yankees do complete a trade for Santana, Steinbrenner said they would not go beyond a five-year contract extension (one that expires after the 2013 season).

“I wouldn’t do it if it were a six- or seven-year contract,” Steinbrenner said. “I wouldn’t go past five, on an extension.”

Oh that crazy Hank Steinbrenner. It seems like he’s tacking on some ending statements that essentially neutralize his earlier comments. Whereas before he was pretty clear in how much he wanted Santana. Now he’s playing it off a bit because of the money, the years, the young talent involved in a trade, Cashman, Hal, etc.

I think Hank knows that, although he wants Santana, it probably won’t happen, so he’s providing everyone with reasons as to why it won’t happen this year.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:01 am

More Yankee Tampering
Spiceman_86 Post #1: Jan 09, 2:45 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 2055


Please tell me how this is not tampering?

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-sphank095531033jan09,0,2874478.story

Princess Hank is publicly discussing a potential contract extention for a player (Johan Santana) who is currently under contract with another team and who he hasn't even come close to trading for yet. Earth to Bud Selig...this is against the rules of baseball and the Yankees need to be punished for it. Get off your a55 and enforce the rules! There's been a new quote coming from his fat mouth almost everyday.
kerrbrick Post #2: Jan 09, 4:58 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 990


Anyone know exactly what constitutes tampering in baseball? It does seem to be selectively enforced ... hence my confusion, I think.

Hank is a tool, no question ... at least he's entertaining to me though.
MassSports Post #3: Jan 09, 5:02 pm Quote | Report Violation
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Hank does have a crush on Johan

http://thebronxzoo.wordpress.com/2008/01/09/hanks-man-crush-on-santana-continues/
MassSports Post #4: Jan 09, 5:00 pm Quote | Report Violation
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this is a good blog entry too

http://thebronxzoo.wordpress.com/2007/12/30/hals-presence-being-felt/#comment-541
Cysuzaka Post #5: Jan 09, 5:19 pm Quote | Report Violation
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Please tell me how this is not tampering?


Why don't you tell us how it is?
MassSports Post #6: Jan 09, 5:22 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 306
LOL.... Mike always acts like Hank hasn't tampered every time Hank tampers and that's pointed out by someone.
Cysuzaka Post #7: Jan 09, 5:25 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 7460


LOL.... Mike always acts like Hank hasn't tampered every time Hank tampers and that's pointed out by someone.

And you guys always act like you know what exactly constitutes tampering.

kopplaw Post #8: Jan 09, 5:27 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 237
I don't think that you can publicly discuss contract negotiations with a player who is currently under contract with another team. You can express interest in trading for a player, because that is a deal with the team, not with the player. Statements about contract extensions have nothing to do with the player's current team and everything to do with the player. For instance, if Johan were previously ignorant of the Yankee's willingness to sign a long term deal, he might have been inclined to resign with the Twins. Then Hank says that the Yanks are willing to sign Santana for five years, forcing the Twins, who retain exclusive negotiating rights, to effectively negotiate with the Yankees. That's tampering.
kopplaw Post #9: Jan 09, 5:30 pm Quote | Report Violation
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Sorry, I meant "compete" with the Yankees, not "negotiate." Exclusive negoatiating rights should mean something. If other teams are publicly announcing that they are willing to offer a contract for a specific term, or for a specific amount, then there are no exclusive negotiating rights. Sure, Santana can't sign with any other team until the end of the year, but we all know that negotiations begin early.
chef402 Post #10: Jan 09, 6:23 pm Quote | Report Violation
Total Posts: 399
I was google searching "baseball tampering rules" and came across an interview with Twins GM Bill Smith and he was asked

A Twins Fan: "If you could pick a player from any other team in the league and sign them, who would it be?"
Bill Smith: "Major League baseball has strict tampering rules that prohibit team officials from commenting on any other team's players including potential free agents."

so according to this you are not supposed to talk about another teams players. Hank would be guilty of that.

iPhraud Post #11: 1:00 am Quote | Report Violation
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Lol. Mike got destroyed in this thread.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:02 am

I think it's not tampering because they are involved in negotiations with Santana’s team?… It’s only tampering if the Twins file charges against the yankees with MLB. As long as there is a potential trade on the table between the two teams the Twins will not file charges.Hank needs to shut up and He's a bad businessman.

if what Hank is doing is tampering, the Mets did the same thing earlier this offseason when I heard a report on ESPN radio, where Minaya said that the Mets would offer a 7 year deal to Johan, even though they wouldnt go above 5 for Zito.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:04 am

Yankees ... Red Sox ... or maybe the Mets



http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/13627791.html




The less talked-about team from New York might be a better match for the Twins in Johan Santana trade talks.

By Joe Christensen, Star Tribune

Last update: January 10, 2008 - 12:00 AM






After weeks of speculation that the Yankees and Red Sox were the two favorites to land Johan Santana, the Twins could wind up shipping him to the Mets.

Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.

They have the greatest need. They have the money to sign Santana. And they play in the National League, where he's less likely to haunt the Twins.

The players the Mets would send the Twins aren't household names. There's no Jose Reyes or David Wright. The offers aren't perfect.

But it's become abundantly clear the Twins won't be able to make the perfect trade here. Not for a two-time Cy Young winner. Not for a lefthander who is 93-44 for his career and won't turn 29 until March.

No team is going to give the Twins everything they need when that team must turn around and hand Santana a five- or six-year contract extension worth at least $20 million per year.

According to people with knowledge of the discussions, the Mets have offered top pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, along with center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

The Twins like those players. They've told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez.

Even then, it wouldn't be a perfect trade.

It would give the Twins a big stack of potential, with few guarantees. Consider:

• Gomez, 22, could step in as the Twins' everyday center fielder next year. He is faster than Jose Reyes, the All-Star shortstop the Mets have made untouchable. But scouts say Gomez also has trouble hitting a slider. In four minor league seasons, he has 250 strikeouts in 1,251 at-bats and a meager .336 on-base percentage.

• Guerra is a 6-5 righthander who signed with the Mets out of Venezuela for $700,000 in 2006. He pitched in the Class A Florida State League last season and posted a 4.01 ERA -- at age 18.

• Martinez was recently named the Mets' top prospect by Baseball America. Guerra was No. 2. While scouts are skeptical about Gomez's ability to hit, they are more confident in Martinez, who climbed to Class AA last year at age 18.

• Mulvey, 22, and Humber, 25, are both considered prospects, though neither currently projects better than a No. 4 starter.

That's a problem.

The Twins already have bid goodbye to Matt Garza and Carlos Silva this offseason. If they subtract Santana, the remaining starters would be Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano, who is coming off elbow surgery.

"There's no question our starting pitching is going to be very young," General Manager Bill Smith said Wednesday. "We've lost two good guys, and we certainly have our eyes open looking for starting pitching."

The Yankees have offered one of the game's top pitching prospects in Phil Hughes. Beyond him, however, the Twins aren't so sure.

They wonder if center fielder Melky Cabrera would struggle when taken out of the Yankees lineup. He'd probably be pitched to differently, which could cause him to struggle.

The Red Sox have offered lefthander Jon Lester and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. But not in the same deal.

The Twins like infield prospect Jed Lowrie, who has been offered in both proposals. Again, these offers would address one need -- adding position prospects or a quality starting pitcher -- not both.

For now, this remains one big staring match. The Twins are waiting for some team to blink. In the end, it just might be the Mets.

Joe Christensen • jchristensen@startribune.com

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:06 am

Quote:
According to Joe Christensen of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Mets have been told that they can land Johan Santana if they add OF Fernando Martinez to their current offer of OF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

Christensen writes that while the Yankees and Red Sox both remain in the sweepstakes, “Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.”

Christensen speculates that Santana is looking for a five- or six-year contract worth at least $20 million per season.


http://www.metsblog.com/

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:08 am

Even if you think Ellsbury sucks, his perceived value is like >>>>>>>> Shelley Duncan's.

Omar Minaya will be back from Israel today or tomorrow, apparently, cutting his trip a bit. May he be jetlagged and extra susceptible.



Johan Speaks.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080109/SPORTS/801090424/1010/SPORTS


So, where will he pitch this season?

"I have no idea," said Santana, who will turn 29 in March. "I'm a Minnesota Twin. That's all I know. It's up to them. Whatever they have to do is going to happen. It has nothing to do with me at all. I said it from the beginning during the season last year, whatever will be the best for this team and this organization, I'll agree with that.

"As long as it makes this team better. I have no problem with anything. No hard feelings or anything. That's just the way baseball is
."


Meanwhile, Santana is going about his business at the Twins' facility. Does he have a preference between the Red Sox and Yankees?

"I don't care," said Santana, who has had a Fort Myers home for two years. "I'm a professional. Wherever I play I'll make sure I make people proud having me being with their team. That's the way I am, so if it's the Twins or whoever, I'll be ready."


Last edited by on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:11 am

Cave, Omar!

I SAID CAVE, OMAR, YOU CRAZY SONOFABITCH!

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:12 am

So it would basically be as though we offered a package of Alan Horne, Jackson, Melky, and Kennedy (which I think many here would be very open to) but the Twins came back and said "Hey we like those guys, just throw in Hughes."

Yes Martinez is not Hughes, but he is the closest thing the Mets have in value to him, I laugh at alot of the people here. They go ballistic to hear that Hughes might be on the table merely leaving us with the likes of Chamberlain, Kennedy, Horne, Betances, Sanchez, Mccallister, Tabata, Jackson, etc etc etc in the minors. Yet they actually feel Omar should essentially ship every single player he has with any value whatsoever in his system for Johan. If Minaya agreed to that deal he'd have he best pitcher in the league and what would essentially be the Kevin Reeses and Jim Browers of the world waiting in down below

Go for it Mets. Make all those heartbroken fans from last September proud!

So it would basically be as though we offered a package of Alan Horne, Jackson, Melky, and Kennedy (which I think many here would be very open to) but the Twins came back and said "Hey we like those guys, just throw in Hughes."

I think almost everyone knew and understood that if the Mets were going to have a shot, they were going to have do it in bulk quantity, even if that meant leaving their messed up farm more so.

Honestly, if Omar had half a brain, he would have held onto Milledge until this had been entirely sorted out


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmers' Helmet
Let me see if I've got this right :

- There are theories that Hank and Brian are playing "good cop - bad cop"; that Hank isn't really the egocentric owner he's demonstrated himself to be and Brian hasn't really lost any authority even though he has openly said so. This is all part of some diabolical plot to "throw off" everyone...err, sure.

- Robert Greene, coquette, and Eric Cartman in drag have all appeared in this thread; meanwhile Bobcat has not..

- The Yankees are doomed if Santana goes to Boston

- The Yankees are not doomed if Santana goes to Boston

- Hank has seen it fit to remind us on a daily basis that the final decision is his; lest we have amnesia and forget it. Of course this is all part of "the act".

- Santana has been going to Boston any day now for the past 6 weeks.

- Flymick has the worst reported case of testicular pain in the history of mankind.

- If Hank draws anymore lines in the sand, he's going to qualify for the World Championship Tournament of Beach Tic-Tac-Toe

- 10 threads with more pages than the Old & New Testament combined and Santana is still a Twin and Hughes is still a Yankee; earning this topic the dubious distinction of being the greatest Seinfeld thread of all time - a thread about nothing.

thanks for reminding me



It wouldn't leave their farm system further messed up, if this deal was done there would be no farm system. Their best remaining prospect would be Mike Pelfrey, a guy who has gotten lit up like Rockafeller center on christmas eve in the National league. The one thing even somewhat noteable about the guy is the fact that he is a pitcher and he wears a mouthguard. This is the man who would make up their future generation of Mets.

And I agree with you about Lastings. The fact that they traded him for two players who would might be cut by alot of other teams not named the Nationals is mind boggling.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:14 am

the twins better do something. i mean seriously,why dont teams just wait until next year and sign him as a free agent? santana is the one with the leverage,not the twins. if the twins dont trade him they are in deep trouble. a draft pick doesnt sound as good as any of these offers. not to mention santana has to agree to an extension in order to accept the trade. the twins should be worried about who is going to offer santana the best contract,not who they might get for him. what if they agree to a trade and then santana cant get his contract? the twins will be the ones scrambling,not the other teams. the yanks are saying that they will only go fuve years. big pr problems in minnesota and santana has all the power.

ok now they are just pushing this too far. to call this even a remotely close offer is a bold statement. The only reason the twins would even begin to look at this offer as a serious one is to ship santana off to the NL so they dont have to face him. Mets aint gettin him. sox n yanks wont allow it

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:16 am

Pinch hitting: Pinstripe Alley


http://yankees.lhblogs.com/
January is usually a slow month for baseball news. So we’ve lined up a series of guest bloggers to entertain you. Next up is John from Pinstripe Alley.

John posts for Pinstripe Alley under the handle jscape2000. Here’s his post. It’s about league average pitching.

I think we can all agree that the team does better when the starter goes deeper into the game. When the Yanks can count on each of their starters to throw a quality start it saves wear on the valuable arms in the pen and it keeps the mediocre arms out of sight.

The Yankees gave 30 starts to pitchers with below average ERAs who had shouldn’t have been used for more than an emergency start (Igawa, Clippard, DeSalvo, Karstens, Henn, and Wright). Mike Mussina made another 27 starts with a 5.15 ERA and 1.47 baserunners per inning (WHIP).

That motley crew averaged just under 5 innings per start, while the rest of the Yankees’ staff averaged 6 innings per start. It might seem like asking the bullpen for an extra two innings each week isn’t that big a deal, but it is.

Consider: Brian Bruney and his 1.62 WHIP pitched 50 innings. If the starters could have given the Yanks another innings of league average performance they would have allowed 11 fewer baserunners. That would have taken about 5 runs off the scoreboard.

So here’s the big change that the mainstream media doesn’t really talk about: The young guns don’t have to be especially great, they just have to be there.

Pettitte and Wang will need to repeat their solid numbers. Roger Clemens was merely average - I bet IPK can be average. Mike Mussina figures to be the same awful pitcher he has been. Hopefully Joe G doesn’t stick with him as long as Joe T did. I would trade him in a heartbeat.

Phil Hughes and Joba have to be better than Kei Igawa and Jeff Karstens. That’s not exactly like replacing Koufaux and Drysdale. An improvement to merely league average would be worth a couple wins to a team that just won 94 games.

If the young guns can manage a league average 4.47 in Igawa/Clippard/DeSalvo/Karsten/Henn’s 171.2 innings they would allow 47 fewer runs over the course of the season. That would move the pitching staff from 8th to 5th (3 ER behind the Angels for 4th). That moves the Pythag record from 97 wins to 101 wins.

If the Yankees can do that, then next year will be a very good year.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:17 am

1. Peter Abraham January 10th, 2008 at 2:19 am

Thanks to John for the post. More guest blogs are on the way this month. We’ve had them for seven days in a row now.
2. Bronx Liaison January 10th, 2008 at 2:22 am

Very good points John. Realistic and certainly possible.

It also raises the importance of guys like Hawkins, Farnsworth, and the seemingly unending group of wildcards that make up the bullpen. It will be interesting to watch one of the most competitive Spring’s in recent memory.

Looks like the M’s are closing in on Bedard. Hopefully it will mean a Santana resolution is closer, but that is just wishful thinking. The Mets can get him, but refuse to part with Fernando Martinez:

http://bronx-bomberz.blogspot.com/
3. george January 10th, 2008 at 2:30 am

i basically agree, but even if everyone is healthy, there’ll need to be a 6th starter w/some significant innings because of the limitations likely to be in place for the youngsters. for example, off the top of my head, i think something like this is the maximum IP that can be reasonably expected:

Pettite - 210
Wang - 210
IPK - 190
Hughes - 150
Joba - 150

so, I’d see Mussina getting 100ish IP as a starter, something like that, under this scenario.
4. McLovin January 10th, 2008 at 2:37 am

190 innings isn’t bad for Kennedy but remember Wang was DL a couple of times these last two years,alsoPettite was on the DL with that Elbow early this year.Santana’s 220 innings solves that.Also we have to deal with three rooikes going thouh those rough outings.

The Mets aren’t giving up anything great for the Twins to put in their rotation right now so they want more quanity.
5. Smadar January 10th, 2008 at 2:37 am

And that’s if nobody’s hurt, which never happens.
6. Joel January 10th, 2008 at 2:51 am

McLovin,

Wang was on the DL with a minor hamstring pull along with what seemed like 1/2 the team.

Pettitte missed 1 or 2 starts with a back spasm. He didnt have any issues related to his elbow. He has also thrown 200 innings for 3 straight years.
7. iYankees January 10th, 2008 at 3:05 am

Great post. We need Wang to be a vision of health and durability this year, same with Pettitte. With Wang, last year seemed to be an anomoly in terms of freak (hamstring) injuries (so hopefully he’ll stay healthy), and Pettitte has seemingly surpassed his injury issues.

IPK is an essential component because of the innings he has logged thus far. Moose will need to contribute a lot in order to offset the inning caps for Hughes and Joba. Joba seemed particularly gassed as the season ended so I don’t expect more than 130-150 innings from him.

Hughes only got up to around 110 innings last year (due to injuries) so even 150 big league innings from him might be asking for a lot (although he’ll probably get there).

Great point about the relievers. We didn’t have a great bullpen last year, but this year, as long as the starters log some innings, we should be okay (and less runs, more wins will be the result). That’s why it’s more important for the Yanks to have a long-man in their pen this year and not worry so much about their lefty specialist.

Stick Igawa in there. He has to be in the pen in 2008. The investment for him was a lot, but right now, he’s making what, 4-mill a year? That sounds about right for a decent long-man/emergency starter/innings insurance.
8. gianthinker January 10th, 2008 at 3:56 am

*Knicks Fans*

We invite you to join the MVN Knicks section better known as Father Knickerbocker for Knicks updates and discussions.

http://mvn.com/nba-knicks/
9. Smadar January 10th, 2008 at 3:56 am

LOL! if the Yankees prospects are league average the Yankees will win 101 games. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight…

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:21 am

January 10th, 2008 at 1:06 am

ortiz is on HGH! BET ON IT

Mitchell is nothing but a politician who has been a lobbyist for the tobacco industry, among other things. A politician’s business is to trade favors. That’s all he’s done. For instance, ESPN employees outed Paul Byrd miraculously–thereby allowing him to avoid the dramatic unveiling of the actual “report.” Byrd does not deny shooting up throughout the 2007 post season. The timing of his outing was such that he skated and allowed Mitchell to focus on 2 Yankees. The media picked it up 24/7, otherwise it wouldn’t have been a story. They didn’t just reflect it, they made it unspeakably false and ugly. And they let Paul Byrd and the Cleveland Indians go untouched. Cleveland media doesn’t pound Paul Byrd 24/7. No media does. People forget they were swamped with media crawling over their clubhouse on the deciding night of a post season game. I’ve seen no headlines calling for Paul Byrd to go to Congress to testify about his unlicensed dentist, his 1000 units of hgh, 100 syringes, and goods he kept in team fridges.


i’ve a legal - & ethical i guess - question. the Federal prosecutors are letting a suspected drug distributor - McNamee - avoid going to jail for distribution of steroids, and/or amphetamines. In exchange, he has to offer testimony against Roger Clemens.

The context is that the prosecutor do not have enough evidence to pursue prosecution of Clemens.

But now the Justice Department gets to put Clemens on what amounts to a public trial. It seems that it’s putting a private citizen into an extra-judicial process; a police state move. Shouldn’t they be prosecuting the distributor they have nailed, and kept Clemens’ private to their investigations, unless they were planning to bring it to a grand jury?

isn’t this, or shouldn’t this be, a blatant violation of due process?

What’s worse, now Clemens is being investigated by another branch of the Federal government - Congress. what is the legal basis?




i’ve a legal - & ethical i guess - question. the Federal prosecutors are letting a suspected drug distributor - McNamee - avoid going to jail for distribution of steroids, and/or amphetamines. In exchange, he has to offer testimony against Roger Clemens.

The context is that the prosecutor do not have enough evidence to pursue prosecution of Clemens.

But now the Justice Department gets to put Clemens on what amounts to a public trial. It seems that it’s putting a private citizen into an extra-judicial process; a police state move. Shouldn’t they be prosecuting the distributor they have nailed, and kept Clemens’ private to their investigations, unless they were planning to bring it to a grand jury?

isn’t this, or shouldn’t this be, a blatant violation of due process?

What’s worse, now Clemens is being investigated by another branch of the Federal government - Congress. what is the legal basis?


another interesting article on the SWB Yanks blog -

“Kevin Goldstein’s (Baseball Prospectus) ranking of Sox and Yanks pitching prospects:

http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com/Blogs/SWBYankees/tabid/552/Default.aspx

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Phil Hughes
4. Jon Lester
5. Ian Kennedy
6. Alan Horne
7. Justin Masterson
8. Michael Bowden”





Putting the pitchers in order


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=403

By cjennings : posted @ 7:43 PM : 31 Views : 0 Comments : Rating [Article Rating]
posted in Prospects, Opinions [Click to print]

Don't put too much weight behind what I'm about to post. It's nothing more or less than a fun exercise, something to spark a debate that probably doesn't need additional fire.

Reading through Kevin Goldstein's chat today at Baseball Prospectus, I noticed that he kept getting questions asking him to rank the young Yankees pitchers against the young Boston pitchers. While I acknowledge that it could not possibly matter less which is a "better" prospect, I like thinking about these things for some reason. Here are the questions that let us in on Goldstein's opinion:

Will (PA): Who would you take: Buchholz or Hughes? Explain as well.
Kevin Goldstein: Buchholz. Explaination: Better stuff.

bucket (seoul, korea): how about this? lester? or kennedy?
Kevin Goldstein: Lester -- when in doubt ALWAYS take the power arm.

Jay (Madison): Joba, Clay, Phil. Who's the best in 08 and who's the best beyond?
Kevin Goldstein: I'll take Clay, Joba, Phil for both answers. Love all three.

Seymour (Brooklyn): Lester over Kennedy because he's a power arm? When in doubt should you always take the guy with bad control too?
Kevin Goldstein: Bad? That's a bit much. He has average control, while Kennedy is obviously plus-plus. His stuff far surpasses Kennedy, and in the majors, stuff plays.

TonyPenaHuntsQuail (CT): Thanks for answering my question, what yankee prospects, if any, are flying under the radar, players with a legitimate chance at becoming usefull big leaguers; and are Humberto Sanchez and Tim Battle amongst them?
Kevin Goldstein: Battle, certainly not. Sanchez, maybe -- if he can stay healthy and lay off the buffet table, he should be a fine reliever.

That last one has nothing to do with the current topic, I just posted it because... Tim Battle? Wow.

Chamberlain.jpg

So back to the subject at hand. Unless Goldstein is one of the few people who considers Lester a better prospect than Hughes, it seems to me that he ranks the big three and the big two in this order:

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Phil Hughes
4. Jon Lester
5. Ian Kennedy

That group is unreal, especially considering it leaves out Alan Horne, Justin Masterson, Jeff Marquez and Michael Bowden, and considering all five should play a big role in the big leagues this year. My question is, how do you rank them? My first reaction was to swap Buchholz and Chamberlain, I even thought about putting Buchholz behind Hughes, but I ultimately decided to agree with the Goldstein.


Going slightly beyond those five, I'd go with:
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Phil Hughes
4. Jon Lester
5. Ian Kennedy
6. Alan Horne
7. Justin Masterson
8. Michael Bowden

Again, I realize none of this matters, its just something I started thinking about while reading that chat. I also started thinking about where the Devil Rays pitching trio would rank in this group, but I quit thinking about it just before my brain ran out of room

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:29 am

Chat: Kevin Goldstein


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=403

Chat Home

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday January 09, 2008 1:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Goldstein.
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Kevin Goldstein, working his way through Top 11 Prospects lists, checks in to talk about his rankings.

Kevin Goldstein: Hey folks, sorry about the delay -- had some wi-fi issues here at casa de KG. Nonetheless, great to be rolling again here at BP, the book is pretty much done, Top 11s have moved to the National League, and all is well. So let's talk baseball with our usual assortment of silliness, be it music, film, video games or what your best holiday gift was. Let's go.

wsgdf83 (Naperthrill): I've heard bad things about Poreda's delivery - that he's an injury waiting to happen. Have you heard the same?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. It's hardly perfect, but it's not end of the world violent or anything. The more legitimate concern is wether or not his secondary stuff will come -- it's still a pretty special arm.

kevin (boston): what will the redsox do with jed lowrie? trade bait? move lugo to make room?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, you make it sound like 'move lugo' is as easy as calling Bob into the office and saying "move Lugo." And then Bob comes back with his TPS reports next week and Lugo is moved. He's a guy with a bad contract coming off a bad year, so where you going to move him to? Also, that means you are putting Lowrie at shortstop, which is a mistake -- I love the guy, but he's just not a big league shortstop, he's a second baseman, and probably for someone else in the end.

prhood (Canada): is it a coincidence that 2 of the teams with the weaker farm systems - TOR and OAK (until the latest trades) both espoused a low risk drafting philosophy which involves taking college players with the top picks. Beane was Riccardi's mentor was he not? Can we hope to see a change in their respective approaches?

Kevin Goldstein: Travis Snider (heck, most of the Toronto '07 top picks), Trevor Cahill, etc. -- I think you've already seen a change. The moneyball way of drafting is a dead issue folks.

greg (toronto): Other than Travis Snider (and including the 2007 draft picks), are there any prospects in the Jays system that have star potential? If so, then who?

Kevin Goldstein: No; not applicable.

Jeremy (New Hampshire): What do you think is the future of the draft's slotting system? Will it be scrapped all together, continue in its present form, or will the commissioner's office try to make the penalties for going above slot more severe?

Kevin Goldstein: It's one of those things that really can't be changed until the next CBA, and I can't see the Players Association going for anything that involves fixed dollar figures for anything. Personally, I think the answer is to allow the trading of picks.

Dan (CT): Kevin, what's your take on Joe Savery? Do the injury concerns that caused him to slip to Philly at 19 cast doubt on his long-term potential as a SP, or might teams have overreacted to the string of 1st round Rice pitchers w/ injury problems? Does he have ace potential if he improves command of his secondary pitches?

Kevin Goldstein: Being at Rice, and being injured at Rice definitely turned some teams off -- no doubt about it. At the same time, I really like Savery, but I have a personal bias for athletic pitchers. Ace potential? No, but so few have that. More a No. 3 with an outside shot at No. 2 if all the planets align.

prhood (Canada): Thanks for taking these questions. Do you follow the high school scene to any great extent. If so, who are some of the top high school players likely to be drafted this year in the 1st round?

Kevin Goldstein: I follow it on a draft level certainly. My top high school player right now is Tim Beckham, a five-tool shortstop from Georgia; my top pitcher is Tim Melville, a tall power righty from Missouri.

bctowns (Chicago, IL): Kevin, If memory serves, you are a pretty hardcore RPG guy when it comes to video games. If that's correct, have you any recommendations for the New Year?

Kevin Goldstein: Get a PSP -- tons of great stuff for it. Console wise, we're kind of playing the waiting game for a good one, though the offerings coming at the end of the year from Square/Enix look pretty great. And of course, hopefully Disgaea 3, which is out in Japan at the end of this year, and hopefully will be here sooner than later.

Hub (Baltimore): Who has the worst farm system in baseball? To me, I think the White Sox have the worst system by far. In fact, it could be historically bad right now

Kevin Goldstein: The Astros see your bad system, and raise you . . . significantly.

Dan (Denver): Which mistake was bigger? Jays taking Romero over Tulo, or the Rockies taking Reynolds over Longoria?

Kevin Goldstein: They are both megaton errors.

Dan (CT): Kevin, how about an Oakland A's top 11 Redux Redux following the Swisher trade? Where would Gio Gonzalez rank? Does this deal change your opinion as to his potential to make a big league impact over the next 2 to 3 years?

Kevin Goldstein: Ok! How about a Redux for every American League team that has made moves to effect their rankings? You'll see that tommorow! 2008 and I'm ahead of the game!

cjbuet (madison, wi): is desmond jennings the next coming of eric davis?

Kevin Goldstein: Not THAT much power, no.

Michael Lewis (Scottsdale): Isn't the Moneyball philosophy about arbitrage and not drafting college players? Moneyball is about exploiting undervalued assets in the market. If the same risks can be achieved at lower costs, you have an obligation to exploit the inefficiency in the market. Quick example to drive the point home, if you have two players of the same caliber but one is from the Northern hemisphere and the other is from the Southern hemisphere. However, the market is requiring a larger payout for the player from the southern hemisphere, does it not make sense to acquire the player from the north with the same risk profile?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, yeah. Look we all understand what it's ABOUT, but let's face it, the second I said 'Moneyball draft' you knew EXACTLY what I was talking about, so while it doesn't fit the definition perfection, and may even be a misnomer, you still got it, and see it was communicated effectively.

mike (DC): What do you make of Brandon Snyder? Can he handle 3B better than Billy Rowell? Will his bat support a permanent move to 1B?

Kevin Goldstein: Saying he can handle third base better than Billy Rowell is like saying he'll be a better dictator than Idi Amin. Both are pretty bad there, and both have no MLB future at the hot corner. I do like Snyder's bat, but at the same time, like you point out, is it enough to be a 1b? I don't see it.

danny (MA): Dustin Richardson seems to be flying under the radar. He posted great numbers at Greenville and Lancaster. I know hes old for his level, and some project for the bullpen, but do you think he could ever more than an end of the rotation guy?

Kevin Goldstein: I think even an end of the rotation guy might be a bit much, but that's not a huge insult -- I do like him as a prospect. Big, athletic righty who needs to work on the secondary stuff.

greg (toronto): Was the only reason that the Jays took Romero before Tulowitzki was because he was the best lefty in a draft that didn't have many quality lefties?

Kevin Goldstein: I'd hate to say 'only', but positional scarcity definitely played a huge role.

ripfan008 (Baltimore): Hi Kevin, Thanks for taking my question. Do you feel that Chris Nelson's 2007 season represents true improvement or the effects of repeating a league?

Kevin Goldstein: Colorado Top 11 is coming soon. I won't give away his ranking, but I will say this -- I'm a HUGE Chris Nelson fan. Like, really, really, big Chris Nelson fan.

Like me that Chris Nelson guy.

bctowns (Chicago, IL): Kevin, Any hope for the Cubs' farm system? Sure seems like a lot of mediocre arms and not quite good enough position guys. How about some hope for the New Year?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't have much for you. I really like Josh Vitters, despite his poor debut. I think Soto is going to be a very good catcher. How's that?

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:30 am

NMUWildcat027 (Lapeer, MI): Will Jay Bruce go north in Centerfield this spring?

Kevin Goldstein: That's why they traded Josh Hamilton.

Robert (Atlanta): A lot is made of the outfield depth in the Atlanta farm system, but how are they elsewhere? Is there anybody currently in the system who could realisticly be expected to be ready to step in at 3rd base in 3-4 years when Chipper Jones decides to hang up the spikes?

Kevin Goldstein: The Braves strength is definitely in their pitching. Postion-wise, other than the outfield, they're very shallow.

raygu1 (NJ): Kevin-thanks for the chat. I recall you saying that you were high on Andrew McCutchen. Can you tell me if you see him as a future 25-30 hr hitter? Does he have 30-30 in him once he reaches the majors?

Kevin Goldstein: I see more 20/40 possibilities than 30/30. He's got juice in his bat, but not THAT much juice.

What is up with the Moneyball fanboys? I have like 12 200-word diatribe's on it in the que. Stop it. You're grasping onto old technology.

aardvark (California): In his last chat (the transcript seems to be unavailable, so forgive me for not having the exact language) Nate Silver suggested that based on some of the work that he and Clay Davenport have done this offseason the gulf between translations (projections?) for players in the low minors and high minors is wider than previously thought. He specifically mentions Clayton Kershaw as being further away from being an impact big leaguer. I also seem to remember that you described Kershaw as the best pitching prospect still in the minors. Does what Silver is talking about change your thinking on low minor prospects in general and Kershaw specifically?

Kevin Goldstein: Not in the least. Ranking prospects combines ceiling and chances of reaching said ceiling. You can't ranking prospect by only going for sure things -- or you'll just have a list of Double and Triple-A guys. Let's say there are 30 fututre impact players in the minors (I just pulled that number out of my you know what, I'm not sure what the number would really be), chances are, those 30 are evenly distributed throughout each level, there's just a greater challenge to finding them to further you move down.

Tim (Portland): How forthcoming are scouts about 20-80 grades when you talk to them? Can you give an example of one current prospect who has an 80 tool?

Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the scout really. Many will give you indvidual tool grades, some are hesitant to give you their final OFP (Overall Future Potential) score, some aren't. 80 tools aren't easy to find. You can find a good number of 80 speed guys, but that's about it.

NMUWildcat027 (Lapeer, MI): What can you tell us about Warner Madrigal? I read somewhere that the Rangers were going to bring him to ST and let him have a chance to earn a job throwing his fastball in their bullpen. Does he have any refinement on his breaking ball. Is this the kind of fresh arm more teams should be taking a chance on with their mediocre minor league outfielders? How hard is it to try to teach an athletic hard throwing baseball player to spin a curve or toss a slider?

Kevin Goldstein: Madrigal actually has a surprisingly decent slider to go with some big-time gas. I don't think he's nearly big league ready, but I thought he was a real nice grab for the Rangers.

Dan (CT): Thanks for answering a couple of my questions Kevin! As someone addicted to "prospecting," your approach and insight have been invaluable in helping me to refine my own system of player evaluation. So, you think a career in online baseball journalism will cover the massive and debilitating student loans I incurred for law school before deciding I liked this better? Don't answer that. Uggggh. Costly mistake.

Kevin Goldstein: Man, you are so screwed.

Buff (Austin TX): Should Tribe fans start considering Adam Miller a potential back-end bullpen asset rather than a potential FOR starter asset because of his inability to stay healthy?

Kevin Goldstein: Lots of Miller questoins. I do think the best route at this point would be to ease him into the majors in a relief role and play it by ear from there.

Colin Jaffe (Buffalo, NY): Do you agree with Christina that it didn't make much sense for Oakland to jettison their best hitter and best pitcher, each of whom was signed very cheaply, in order to add prospects? Would it have been better to build around Swisher and Haren than the few guys who work out among the gabajarillion prospects they got?

Kevin Goldstein: No, I do not. I think if you make a decision to rebuild, you have to totally commit to a full rebuild. You can't rebuild AND try to compete at the same time -- you have to be totally committed to the future without any concern for the present. I think the A's are doing the right thing here.

greg (toronto): Who has a better chance of turning things around: Purcey or Romero?

Kevin Goldstein: I like Purcey's chances if they make him a reliever, though I find it hard to bet against Romero. That guy is about as competitive as it gets, and I bet he figures it out enough to become a solid back-end rotation guy.

LindInMoskva (DC): Who are the likely Strat-o-matic 1's in the minors right now? McCutchen, Hu, Colvin? Not necessarily the best defensive players in the minors, but the best defensive players in the minors that could hit enough to play in the majors.

Kevin Goldstein: Colvin? He's certainly not a 1 in CF, he's probably not even going to be able to stay there long term. When I think of highly overrated prospects, Colvin is one of the first guys I think about.

Tim (Portland): What's your take on Pedro Alvarez?

Kevin Goldstein: Obviously, there's a lot to like there. Very good bat, lot's of power, not a great defensive player, but more than good enough to stay at 3B. I don't think I'd put him in Ryan Braun's class offensively, but again, he can stay at the position, so that makes up a lot for it.

Trey (Albany NY): Why are people comparing Kennedy to Mussina? I mean Mussina in his hey day had nasty stuff and Kennedy doesn't fit the bill. If there is one pitcher who similar to moose is Phil Hughes.

Kevin Goldstein: Look, there are some people out there who just don't get it. These are the same people who two years ago compared Tyler Clippard to Mussina. That said, Kennedy is a far superiour prospect to anything Clippard ever was and will be a successful big league starter.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Baseball America left Fernando Perez off their top 10 prospect list for the Rays. How can this be?

Kevin Goldstein: Ask them.

ajmorriso (Chicago): How far has scouts opinions of Donald Veal fallen since last spring?

Kevin Goldstein: It's certainly fallen. He still has great stuff, but he needed to improve his command and instead it went backwards. Hard to bet against that kind of arm though.

Will (PA): Who would you take: Buchholz or Hughes? Explain as well.

Kevin Goldstein: Buchholz.

Explaination: Better stuff.

jaymoff (Salem, OR): How many Rays prospects would be #1's in other organizations?

Kevin Goldstein: As many as six.

Arnold Layne (Cambridge): What would Craig Brazell do with 500 at bats in the Majors?

Kevin Goldstein: .250 w/ 25 home runs and few walks but tons of Ks.

jaymoff (Salem, OR): I have been asking around since the end of this last season but with no answer: have you heard anything about a young DET P named Edwardo Reynoso? His numbers were videogame-like in the DSL (yeah, I know it's the DSL, but still!)!!!

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, he had insane numbers, and I wish I could tell you he's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but he's not. Small-framed guy with great command of decent stuff. Not the next big thing, unfortunately.

Marcus (Fairfax): Do you consider Chris Marrero a five-star prospect and what do you think of the improvements the Nats have made on the farm?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes I do. The Nats have had nowhere to go but up, but they've don't a good job in the last two drafts and their system looks much better than it did 24 months ago. I just finished the top 100 for BP2008 (Go! Buy! Now!) and there are three Nats on the list.


Joe (NY): Kevin, the reason people compare Kennedy to Mussina is because they ahve a similar "bob" motion when pitching from the wind-up. The comparisons have nothing to do with stuff or expected performance.

Kevin Goldstein: That's like comparing me to Frank Black because I'm fat and bald.

bucket (seoul, korea): how about this? lester? or kennedy?

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:30 am

Kevin Goldstein: Lester -- when in doubt ALWAYS take the power arm.

Jack (Manchvegas (NH)): Any thoughts on Andy Laroche? Is he in the same caliber with other top young 3Bs or has his stock dropped? What is his chance of him starting in the majors?

Kevin Goldstein: I still think LaRoche is an elite prospect, and I'm very confused as to why the Dodgers seemingly don't agree with me.

Jay (Madison): Joba, Clay, Phil. Who's the best in 08 and who's the best beyond?

Kevin Goldstein: I'll take Clay, Joba, Phil for both answers. Love all three.

Mario66 (Toronto): Hey KG, what particular stats do you focus on when considering a pitching prospect? Does some stat that takes into account ability to induce ground balls come into play? And, finally, what pitchers have a chance to develop into the next Derek Lowe / Jake Westbrook? Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: IP, H, K are the first three I like out, but everything is taken into account. Next Derek Lowe just might be Justin Masterson.

cjbuet (madison, wi): Do you think Chris Nelson moves to 2b\OF this season? How close is he to the bigs?

Kevin Goldstein: No, becasue they don't need to. Beyond the offensive breakout, he made huge improvements with the glove as well. I realize that blocks him, but as a basic rule, you don't move a prospect the wrong way on the spectrum until absolutely necessary.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:31 am

MarinerDan (San Francisco): Am I crazy to think that Daric Barton could hit 300/400/500 this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Crazy insane? No. A little optimistic? yes.

Seymour (Brooklyn): Lester over Kennedy because he's a power arm? When in doubt should you always take the guy with bad control too?

Kevin Goldstein: Bad? That's a bit much. He has average control, while Kennedy is obviously plus-plus. His stuff far surpasses Kennedy, and in the majors, stuff plays.

jaymoff (Salem, OR): If Dellin Betances bounces back from injury this coming year does he vault himself into the top 10 of pitching prospects in the minors? His ceiling, assuming good health, seems incredible.

Kevin Goldstein: It's impossible to answer that question with any certainty. He's certainly one who COULD do that, but also so many do. Still, better to be on the 'could' list than off it.

Tim (NY): Gossage or Rivera?

Kevin Goldstein: Gossage, but that's not Rivera's fault. I just think 100+ IP relievers are FAR more valueable and it's not Mariano fault that he wasn't used that way. Obviously, he's belongs in the silly Hall of Fame as well.

MarinerDan (San Francisco): Have you played Mario Galaxies on Wii yet? If so, how cool is it?

Kevin Goldstein: Just a little bit, as we are part-time Wii owners. It's pretty much pure joy and cuteness -- if it doesn't make you smile, you have no soul.

Kevin (FCq): Do you think Jeff Niemann going to get a fair shot at the rotation with Wade Davis, David Price, and Jake McGee banging on the door?

Kevin Goldstein: I think everyone, including some of the second-tier pitchers in that system like Talbot and Mason will get a 'fair shot' at the roation -- I just think there are only so many jobs there.

jlarsen (DRays Bay): In the case Longoria starts the year in Durham, do you think Joel Guzman will be an adequate stopgap 3B for the Rays or would we be better served by signing a Free Agent 3B?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think Joel Guzman is even an adequate stopgap at 3B for Durham at this point.

Grizz (Seattle): 5 Stars for Jeff Clement? Is this a position scarcity rating? Even if he sticks at catcher, his defense projects as adequate at best.

Kevin Goldstein: Position scarcity certainly plays a role. Start counting off every catching prospect in the majors who has a shot at developing into an average defender with 30+ home runs a year . . . that's why he's so valuable.

jwr (Chicago): Will the following players still be at the same position in 3 years: (a) Jay Bruce--CF, (b) Ryan Braun--3B, and (c) Miguel Cabrera--3B.

Kevin Goldstein: A. Leaning towards yes, but not in five years.
B. No.
C. No.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:31 am

another interesting article on the SWB Yanks blog -


"Kevin Goldstein's (Baseball Prospectus) ranking of Sox and Yanks pitching prospects:

http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com/Blogs/SWBYankees/tabid/552/Default.aspx

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Phil Hughes
4. Jon Lester
5. Ian Kennedy
6. Alan Horne
7. Justin Masterson
8. Michael Bowden"

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:34 am

Baby-Bombers.com Exclusive: Q&A With Zach McAllister

After the 2007 Season, Baby-Bombers.com had the chance to talk with Yankees Prospect Zach McAllister

http://baby-bombers.com/News/07Archive/Articles/41.htm

January 8, 2008 – The New York Yankees drafted Zach McAllister in the third round of the 2006 First-Year Player draft out of Illinois Valley Central HS. The young right-hander signed and was assigned to the Gulf Coast Yankees where he piggy backed with fellow prospect Dellin Betances. McAllister was 5-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 11 games with just one start in 2006. In 2007 the young right-hander saw regular action in the Staten Island Yankees starting rotation and even earned a spot in the NY-Penn League All-Star Game.



After making only one start in eleven appearances last season in the Gulf Coast League how did it feel to have a regular spot in the rotation?
It felt great because it was what i did in high school and I have always enjoyed being a start so it was nice to know that i had a spot in the rotation.



Was it difficult to begin the season since your first few starts were all on the road?
No not really, it was fun actually. What I mean by that is that it was fun to pitch in front of some fans again even if they are rooting against you.



In 2007 you pitched just over twice as many innings has you did in 2006 in fewer games. Did you change how you approached each game for this past season?
No not all, I went out there every time and tried to do my best and keep our team in the game so that we had a chance to win.



How have your pitches developed throughout the course of the season?

Well it was a little different for me this year because early in the season they had me throwing curveball and then a couple weeks into the season they just had me throwing the slider. But i think for the most part my fastball was there and with my change up and slider they got a little better as the season went on but they still need to improve.



Which pitch would you say is your best? Worst?
Best- Fastball, Worst- Slider



Was there a lot of pressure pitching in a close proximity to Yankees Stadium?
No I don't think so, when it's all said and done you want to end up pitching there. But I don't think there was any added pressure from it.



How did it feel to represent the team in the NY-Penn League All-Star Game?
It was great! I mean it was on of my goals I set for myself and it felt great to reach it and it represents my team there.



After the All-Star Break you had a rough stretch, was it difficult to go through that during the final weeks of the season?

Yea, it was a little difficult to go threw that. It was frustrating to go out there and try to help your team win and not be able to hold up your end of it.



What was your favorite moment of the 2007 season?

Probably pitching in the All-Star Game


Where do you see yourself next season?

I think I have a good chance to pitch in Charleston next year and I’m expecting good thing to happen for me.


What are you doing to help yourself get better for next season?

Just working out and working on my pitches


Who at the Major League level would you compare yourself to?

I would say a Jon Lieber type of pitcher.


Would you say that the rivalry between the Brooklyn Cyclones and Staten Island Yankees rubbed off on some of the players and helped motivate them to do better against the Cyclones?

Yea I would say that, I mean a lot of the players really didn't know what type of rivalry it was we had heard about it but once we played them we realized what they were talking about. So after the first series with them I think we all knew that when we played them that it was going to be an intense game.


Excluding yourself if you had to choose one player from the 2007 Staten Island Yankees that could rise through the Farm System who would it, be?

I would have to say Betances just because he is young and he has the stuff to be a great pitcher in the big leagues.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:35 am

Baby-Bombers.com Exclusive: Q&A With Zach McAllister

After the 2007 Season, Baby-Bombers.com had the chance to talk with Yankees Prospect Zach McAllister

http://baby-bombers.com/News/07Archive/Articles/41.htm

How have your pitches developed throughout the course of the season?

Well it was a little different for me this year because early in the season they had me throwing curveball and then a couple weeks into the season they just had me throwing the slider. But i think for the most part my fastball was there and with my change up and slider they got a little better as the season went on but they still need to improve.


Which pitch would you say is your best? Worst?
Best- Fastball, Worst- Slider


Where do you see yourself next season?

I think I have a good chance to pitch in Charleston next year and I’m expecting good thing to happen for me.

What are you doing to help yourself get better for next season?

Just working out and working on my pitches

Who at the Major League level would you compare yourself to?

I would say a Jon Lieber type of pitcher.

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:40 am

Giants: Terrell Owens will play

BY HANK GOLA
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Thursday, January 10th 2008, 4:00 AM

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/2008/01/10/2008-01-10_giants_terrell_owens_will_play-2.html?page=0



(Page 1 of 2)

IT'S Super Bowl XXXIX all over again.

Will he or won't he? Terrell Owens' high ankle sprain could hold the key to Sunday's divisional playoff game between the Cowboys and Giants, and as of Wednesday, it wasn't looking all that good for America's Team.

T.O. didn't come close to practicing, and coach Wade Phillips, who didn't even set eyes on his star wideout, could offer little hope that he will be able to suit up, a signal the Giants interpreted as pure and simple smoke.

As defensive end Justin Tuck put it, they are not buying the head fake.

"He will play," Tom Coughlin said. "There is no doubt in my mind he will play."

Coughlin, of course, is haunted by the "bad, bitter memory" of all those big plays Owens has made against his defense this year: "four touchdowns, two in that 25-yard range and two in the 50-yard range," he pointed out.

And since Owens managed to play on a broken leg when he nearly led the Eagles to an upset of the Patriots in the Super Bowl three years ago, there is little question about his threshold of pain.

"T.O.'s the type of guy, if they allowed him, he would probably go out there with a crutch in his hand," Tuck said. "There was a question how effective he was going to be in that Super Bowl and he answered that question, too. I'm expecting him to be 100%."

That, of course, would present a problem for the Giants' defense. Despite its bravado, it hasn't really held up against elite offensive units, including two games against the Cowboys in which Tony Romo, et al, have rolled up 801 yards and a spirited 76 points.

"How many points did they score? That's a lot of points," said safety James Butler. "I don't know. I think we've got a good game plan and we're looking forward to the challenge."

Ah, Steve Spagnuolo's game plan. You heard about it everywhere in the Giants locker room on Wednesday.

Tuck was confident the Giants' pass rush could get to Romo, whom he called, "the head of the snake," even though they had just two of their league-high 53 sacks against him.

"We've got to do a good job of getting pressure, especially in his face. That's where he's vulnerable," he said.

Linebacker Kawika Mitchell concurred, noting the Giants simply had to "do what we've been doing all year but in a smart way. There are definitely ways to get in his face."

Plaxico Burress, who has battled his own high ankle sprain since Aug. 2, had some advice for Owens: "Don't play."

Burress added, "We're going down there to win a football game. We are not really concerned about the whereabouts of one particular person on that team."

As for all the weapons at Romo's disposal, the Giants' obvious focus is to limit the Cowboys' big plays, whether Owens is available or not. The difference is as big as the turnover ratio was last week against the Bucs. The Giants allowed 46 pass plays of 20 or more yards this season. The Cowboys had 56, a whopping 10 of which came against the Giants. Of those 56, Owens accounted for 20.

Phillips admitted yesterday that the game plan changes if Owens can't play, even if the Cowboys still have Pro Bowlers Jason Witten and Marion Barber and receivers Patrick Crayton and Terry Glenn.

"Certainly, because I think it dramatically changes what they do," he said. "You can expect certain things when he is playing. They will be looking at him more, doubling him more, whatever. So we do things so they can't do those things. But if he is not there ..."

Owens continues to spend hours in his hyperbaric chamber. And Phillips continues to remind everyone that this can sometimes be a six-to-eight week injury and that the Cowboys are trying to get him ready in three.

And the Giants continue to sound more confident every day.

"Stats are for you guys," said defensive back R.W. McQuarters when somebody brought up the two lopsided losses. "For the most part, when you look at it across the board ... Tony Romo, Eli Manning ... Plaxico, T.O., we match up with these guys. They have weapons on offense. We have weapons on offense."

Said running back Brandon Jacobs, "I most definitely think that we are playing them at the right time."

In more ways than one?

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Re: Santana

Post  RedMagma on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:42 am

Eric Mangini talks to Bill Callahan


http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/2008/01/10/2008-01-10_eric_mangini_talks_to_bill_callahan-2.html

BY RICH CIMINI
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Thursday, January 10th 2008, 4:00 AM

Jets coach Eric Mangini interviewed former Nebraska coach Bill Callahan on Wednesday for an unspecified position on his coaching staff.

Callahan's area of expertise is the offensive line. The Jets' two line coaches, Tony Wise and Mike Devlin, are thought to be in trouble. Wise could become the line coach at Pitt. Mangini also may be looking to create a new position, a running-game coordinator, to bolster the team's 19th-rated rushing offense.

Callahan, Oakland's head coach in 2002 and 2003, helped build a formidable rushing attack in his years with the Raiders.

He could be a candidate for a position with Tampa Bay, where Jon Gruden is making changes on his offensive staff. Callahan and Gruden worked together in Oakland, making a reunion likely. Callahan was fired recently by the Cornhuskers.

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